graphic
by Irina Serikoff
© 2005
|
| During
June 22 and 23, 2005 in Bad Ragaz, Switzerland,
the iNet/Private Wealth Council met for their
Annual Meeting. MG Taylor and TomorrowMakers
prepared a Workshop for Private Wealth Council
members to explore, develop and build an
action agenda on sustainable Responsible
Wealth Ownership. |
| The
Workshop started with a Scenario of the future.
This Scenario was based on MG Taylor Weak
Signal Research and on a presentation given
by Al Gore, to the entire iNet community,
prior to the Workshop in which he outlined
9 drivers
that will singularly and in combination effect
the future. |
| The
material below is composed of my preliminary
Scenario, and participant instructions along
with links to supporting articles. This is
followed with comments on how to design and
conduct a scenario exercise in circumstances
such as this Annual meeting and Workshop.
Some photos of the event are appended. |
|
|
Prepared by Al Gore
1. Global Environmental Crises
2. Global Energy Transition
3. Population/Demographics
4. Pandemics
5. Scientific and technological Hyper-Revolution
6. Communication Hyper-Revolution
7. Globalization
8. War
9. Short Term Thinking and Lack of Vision |
|
“Drivers” are, in the MG Taylor Method, conditions. In this case, Al Gore has outlined an architecture of interacting conditions which feed on and reinforce one another - they constitute a run-away positive feedback loop. Because of their scale and ubiquity, they represent a large portion of both possible good, and given our present behavior as a society [link; a future by default not design] probably bad future consequences capable of altering the fundamental basis of human life on Planet earth.
To successfully engage conditions of this kind requires a systematic method which ranges from thought to action over a long period of time. Conditions cannot be solved. Only problems can be solved and problems are created - not given. Defining the problem is the first step of the creative process. Defining the right problem is an art. The kind of problems that have to artistically created to successfully address the issues which are presented here we call Worth Problems [link: worthy problems method and matt taylor’s worthy problems list]. |
|
An
Address to the 15th Bad Ragaz
Responsible Wealth Forum 2020
|
| “Ladies
and Gentleman, I am Fritz Kaiser and I am privileged
to address this forum as chairman now for the
last time. I helped establish
The Responsible Wealth Forum some years
back and it is with great pleasure that I pass
both
the chairmanship and my board responsibilities
on
to
a new generation
of able leaders many of whom were in school
when we convened for the first time. We have
met the goals we set for ourselves 15 years
ago. The Responsible Wealth concept is now a
powerful global force for good. Pioneered by
private wealth investors it is becoming the
gold standard of all investment, globally. Our
annual CITIZEN INVESTOR award is now
followed with the same attention
as once were the Academy Awards in Hollywood.
Our Responsible Investment Criteria is
becoming the standard by which the majority of
investment strategies are
judged. The number of visits to our on-site Investment
Evaluator and Responsibility Scorecard now
exceeds 5 million a day. World Watch recently
said that
the Responsible
wealth
movement is now the number one force for economic
and ecological good in the world today. As you
all know, this was not always the case and none
of these achievements came easy |
| “When
we started the Responsible Wealth Forum many
were sceptical. ‘What, another meeting to go
to where there is much talk and no action?’ some
said. We ourselves did not know what the concept
of RESPONSIBILTY meant in terms of managing
wealth, over many
generations, in a rapidly changing world. We
had to learn what this means. We did this by
employing action research. This method evolved
out of our 2005 meeting and has since become
the core of our Forum’s process. |
| “We
started this work to answer a few fundamental
and critical questions all related to the understanding
of what is RESPONSIBILITY in terms
of our behavior, our investments, what we advocate
and
what positions
of influence we take in the world. What is wealth?
How is it made sustainable? How can social and
ecological good be, not only supported by investment
policy but, actively promoted by how we invest
and live our lives?” How can our families, and
the communities in which we live and work, be
healthy and archive multigenerational stability?
What is the measure of social equity and how
do our actions effect it? How do the consequences
of technologies and social success effect animals,
plant life and Planet Earth as a living system?
We have struggled with and debated these questions
over the years and evolved a set of answers that
satisfy on individual and social, on local and
global scales. We have created a set of principles,
guidelines and standards that our members have
been able to apply to their family investments
and business with great success. These have also
guided our work as a Forum and, as I mentioned,
are now an influence in the broader arena of
policy making, business and investment. We have
reason to celebrate and feel satisfaction but
not, I think, to rest on our laurels yet. |
| “I
wish to reflect back on the world as is was at
mid point of the first decade of this century.
It was a time of many unknowns, great opportunities
and grave dangers. It still is such a world,
of course. However, we have, achieved, through
our efforts together, a competence in our
understanding of this world we live in and how
we help shape it by our actions. And, while we
can never predict or control this world, we have
made real progress in the art of responsible
investment.” |
| I
do not have to remind you of how turbulent a
decade and a half this has been. We have faced
challenges and opportunities that only a few
decades ago would have been considered science
fiction.
Global Warming is real today and no longer a
matter of debate but an issue to be dealt with
on a daily basis. Options in longevity, human
and animal augmentation are breaking daily and
upsetting, not only the relationship between
humans and
nature, but the fabric of traditional cultures.
Ubiquitous computing and software advances, combined
with
manufacturing cost breakthroughs, have made the
global distribution of knowledge a reality.
Human Capital is now the most sought “resource.”
This is a new and exciting level playing field
but one with a whole new set of rules. And these
are are just a few examples. You all know the
details of the story because you have lived it.
It is
exciting. It is dangerous. It is full of opportunity
- new kinds of opportunities. |
| I
want to thank today, in particular, four Private
wealth Council member research teams that took
on the task of helping us work through moments
of complexity and confusion. Their recommendations
have been extraordinarily useful for all of
us as we have struggled with the complexities
of
the global transformation we are in the midst
of. We will be highlighting their work later
in the
day. |
| In
closing,
I want to share with you an invitation. In celebration
of my upcoming 25th wedding anniversary,
and soon my 65th birthday, we are booking seats
on Atlantic Space Shuttles in order to see our
planet
from
orbit.
This seems
a fitting way to see what we have been part of
accomplishing and a special way of looking ahead
to the next 50 years. Many believe that it was
the
NASA
shots of Planet Earth, taken in the early days
of the space race, that catalyzed the environmental
movement. That was nearly 60 years ago. Now,
ecology and economics are not seen as separate
disciplines but as one integrated
subject. This is a good thing. Please join us
in our celebration. |
After
their introduction to
the Workshop, this
meta-scenario was read by Matt and
Gail to the participants to set the context
for the Scenario exercise. It was posted
in each Breakout area along with each
team’s specific Scenario (see below).
Knowledge
objects were posted on the WorkWalls
as well as in break out areas. Those
is the public areas supported the
exercise in general and all variations
of the Scenario. Those posted
in the breakout
areas more directly related to individual
Team Scenario challenges. Tables with
redundant supporting materials were
provideda and participants
encouraged to take these materials
to their rooms after the day’s work.
Al
Gore’s Drivers, download full outline pdf [link: al gore divers outline], were prominently
posted in the public and breakout areas.
The
Scenario exercise instructions were
posted on HyperTiles, progressively,
as the “a,” “b,” “c,” and “d” questions
and reporting instructions. This way the
Teams had to work, incrementally, knot knowing
what they would be asked to do next. This
keeps both ambiguity and cognitive dissonance
- and, thus, alertness - on the rise and
promotes spontaneity - and, thus, creativity. |
|
|
A
Funny Thing Happened
on the Way to Utopia |
It
is 2010.
You
are a research team made up of Private Wealth
Council members who have been asked to
look at recent trends of great concern to
the Board and make recommendations to the membership. |
| The
recent clashes between the US and China over
oil has been eclipsed only by the recent “Summer
of Flame” as it is now called. With the disruption
of the ice caps, Europe is now faced with devastating
winters with temperatures not seen since the
mini ice age over 150 years ago. Many of the
world’s “bread baskets” are becoming increasing
arid. Competition between nations over water
is beginning to rival that of oil and other critical
resources. The recent introduction
of robotic combat machines, by the US Army, added
fuel to the already hot Saudi Intervention controversy
when a programming glitch and inadequate command
control resulted in the total destruction of
a non-combatant village. Recent scandals and
the ongoing failure to approve the Constitution
has put the entire future of the EU in
doubt. It was Africa who mediated the China-Us
dispute and, despite continuing domestic problems,
has increasingly stepped up to a world leadership
role. The recent
cloning
of
a human child has sparked global
controversy
with
many
nations
banning all related research while others aggressively
pursue it and human and animal augmentation methods
creating “innovation havens” much like the tax
havens
of prior decades.
This
has
sparked
threats of trade embargos as well as a flight
of “cultural creatives” from the more socially
conservative countries. The deffinition of a
“have” and “have not” nation is radically shifting. |
| All
the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, seem
to be playing out in a worst case way.
Of recent,
there have been more disturbing
signs. It does not appear that investment is
either effective nor responsible. Many Council
members are concerned if preservation of capital
is even possible, let alone wealth building with
any kind of responsibility or sustainability.
We
hear greater concern being expressed for the
coming generation and the state of our planet. |
The
Council wants to know:
What
happened? How did it all go so bad so quickly?
What “weak signals”
were
missed?
Is
this just the
rocky part of the road before the future
turns into a smooth super highway or are these
signs
of serious troubles that may overwhelm Humankind?
What are the roles of private wealth in these
circumstances? How can family wealth be preserved
and balanced with social responsibility? Is the
nature of investment changing? What is the
nature of investment in a knowledge-based global
economy in which the critical resource is human
capital? What determines investment criteria
in a world so closely connected that very
action has cascading global effects? How
does responsible investment happen in an environment,
of continuously accelerating change and complexity,
which is constantly being disturbed by new
disruptive technologies? |
“a”
handout:
Read
your Scenario. Accept it basic premises.
From the vantage point of the role
you have been given, explore the following
questions.
How
did these circumstances come about?
Flesh
out the Scenario; what other events
had to have happened for this world
to emerge?
What
are the implications of this kind of
world?
You
have x minutes. Use the white boards to
get your ideas up so that everyone
on your team can see them and add their
thoughts.
“b” handout:
Prepare
your recommendations to the Private
Wealth Council Members.
You
have x minutes.
“c” handout:
Stepping
out of your Scenario role and retuning
to present time, what are the lessons
you learned by this exercise?
What
are the implications of this exercise
to the role of private wealth in the
world?
What
criteria for sustainable, responsible
wealth investment is required in a
world such as the one you explored?
You
have x minutes.
“d” handout:
Prepare
a 12 minute report of your work.
Outline the essence of your Scenario.
List the recommendations you made within
your scenario role. Report the Implications
to private wealth and the investment
criteria you arrived at as the result
of your Scenario exercise.
Outline, on
the magnetic tiles provided, your findings
and be prepared, by 00:00 pm to brief
the whole group. |
|
|
Muddling
Through
Neither Good Nor bad with Life on the Brink |
It
is June 2012.
You
are a research team made up of Private Wealth
Council members who have been asked to look
at recent trends of great concern to the Board
and make recommendations to the membership. |
| After
a reaction in 2006, to fundamentalism, in all
its forms, which promoted a brief period of peace
and increased dialog, the “Cultural
Wars” are back with a vengeance.
The world seems to be once again dividing into
“Two Cultures” but not this time between North
and South, East and West, or “Haves” and Have
nots.” This is a bitter dispute based on religious
and traditional social values and an increasingly
secular, high tech, wealthy, globally oriented
society. There are many who argue that these
are not, intrinsically, opposing world views
but these voices of moderation are, once again,
being downed out by an increasing militant and
vocal minority. The change in administration
in the 08 US election and the radical shift in
Iran’s leadership toward a moderate government
has fueled this new and increasingly bitter debate.
It is also
fostering some unusual allies as once enemies
are discovering common ground. Concerns that
both Russia and Iraq may be tipping back
toward
their
totalitarian past has raised
the specter of a new “cold war.” Yet it is a
very different world from before. Europe is absorbed
with incorporating its new EU members and sorting
out an acceptable constitution. The US is recovering
from recent adventures in nation building. India
and China’s economies are surging and they now
are facing all the complexities of economic success
and global responsibilities. Korea and Japan
are seeking to rebuild their now “old” economics
and face the issues of an aging population. All
economies are being impacted by the costs of
retooling required to ward off Global Warming
and other human cause ecological messes. So far,
we have avoided all the predicted disasters yet
nothing
seems
to
be moving
toward
a sustainable
future. There is a growing concern and morass
in the world and markets are sluggish. The recent
disappointment over an highly promoted AIDS cure
and actually caused a new and more resistant
strain has reinforced the notion that humankind
is in over its head. It also has raise cries
of “technological imperialism” amid concerns
that this is God’s way of punishing human arrogance. |
| All
the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, seem
to be playing out in a crazy combination of both
best and worst case. Of recent, there have
been more disturbing
signs.
It does
not appear that investment is either effective
nor responsible. Many Council members are concerned
if preservation of capital is even possible,
let alone wealth building with any kind of responsibility
or sustainability. We hear greater concern being
expressed for the coming generation and the state
of our planet. It is noted that highly protected
elite enclaves are on the rise all over the globe. |
The
Council wants to know:
What
is happening? Are we gaining or losing ground?
What “weak
signals” are we missing? Are these
just global growth pains before the future
turns bright
or are these signs of serious troubles that
may overwhelm Humankind? What is the role
of private wealth in these circumstances?
How can family wealth be preserved and balanced
with social responsibility? Is the nature
of investment changing? What is the nature
of investment in a knowledge-based global
economy in which the critical resource is
human capital in one part of the population
while another members seem determined to
go back to simpler
times? This divide in not one region of the
world against another but exists within every
region of the world - what are the implications
of this? What determines investment criteria
in a
world
so closely
connected
that very action has cascading global effects?
How does responsible investment happen in
an environment, of continuously accelerating
change and complexity, which is constantly
being disturbed by new disruptive technologies
which a large portion of the population violently
disputes?
|
|
Missed
Opportunities
The World Passed Us By |
It
is 2014.
You
are a research team made up of Private Wealth
Council members who have been asked to look
at recent trends of great concern to the
Board and make recommendations to the membership.
|
Generally,
things have been going very well in the world.
Terrorism is on the decline and true democracy
on the rise. This is surprise to many given the
decade before and a recent flare up of the
“Cultural Wars”. Global ecological issues are
still of concern but
the World’s
leadership
from government, NGOs
and industry rallied, worked together and pushed
through the reforms necessary to getting the economy/energy/ecology
equation in balance. This turned out to be a great
deal easier than expected as there were many
alternatives solutions waiting in the wings
when the world was shocked into action by the
“Great Collapse” of China’s food production
capability. It was the DARPA/IBM/China Technology,
ALRS consortium (Automated Logistical Robot
System) that solved the resulting food crises.
ALRS,
for
the first time, truly took the waste out of
global food production and distribution and
matched it with demand and transportation capacity.
Today ALRS, the World bank and a global credit
system based on FEP analysis (Future Earnings
Potential) is well on
the way to eradicating world hunger and doing
so without all the baggage traditionally associated
with “aid.” It will still be many
decades before periodic droughts,
sudden massive
floods
and
and equally sudden and unexpected animal eradications,
including domestic animals, are in decline
but it is generally felt that we are
at last headed in this right direction. |
| The
global economy has exploded. The expected resource
conflicts between the previously dominate West
and the re surging East never developed since
the brief US-China face down over oil some years
back. New breakthroughs in sustainable energy
technologies and materials
engineering have turned the competition from
one of control of traditional resources to one
of
developing and retaining inventive brain power
- this is now called the
design economy. Who has the best universities,
research labs, creative
work
environments,
interesting
and open cultures, now determines where creative
people migrate. While positive in the large view,
this
has proven massively disruptive to many economies.
It is like the world turned upside down and inside
out in half a decade. |
| All
the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, seem
to be playing out in the best case way that is
conceivable. There are, however, disturbing signs.
It does not
appear that investment is effective in
the long term sense - nor responsible. Many Council
members fell like they are being
passed by and are concerned if preservation of
capital is even
possible, let alone wealth building with any
kind of responsibility or sustainability. They
do not feel like they are participating in the
economy, “in the game,” as they once were. We
hear greater concern for the coming generation
and
the state
of our
planet. Is it becoming a human artifact? What
does it mean to be human in a world of physical
and mental augmentation, genetic engineering,
extensive longevity and increasingly smart machines
that seem to be running ever larger portions
of the infrastructure? Are we in a manic phase
that will lead to a boatload of unintended
consequences? Will the majority of humans become
obsolete? Will the elite become disconnected
from reality? |
| These
questions concern many of the Private Wealth
Council Members. Traditional means of
creating and preserving wealth are being increasingly
made into commodities. The economy is moving
ever faster. Boom and bust cycles like the .com
era
are no longer notable. They tend to be local
and “dance around the globe” landing unexpectedly
and then disappearing overnight. The old, large
dinosaur-like corporations are giving
away
to
ad-hoc global
networks of investors, managers, technologists,
designers, distributors and buyers who seem to
invent whole markets over night - and then reform
to
do it
again. Many private wealth families are finding
it difficult to stay up with the complexity of
this new world. There are concerns about family
values and if the next generation will be able
to - or want to - carry on with the family enterprise.
The World, while ever more intriguing and dynamic,
seems
to be
on a fast track to an unknown collision with
an unknown future. |
The
Council wants to know:
What
happened? How did everything change so quickly?
What “weak signals” were missed?
Is this just a phase on the road to
the future, does a new “stability” result,
or are we heading for a set of troubles
that
may overwhelm Humankind? What is the unique
role of private wealth in these circumstances?
How can family wealth be preserved and balanced
with social responsibility? Is the nature
of investment changing? What is the nature
of investment in a knowledge-based global
economy in which the critical resource is
human capital? What determines investment
criteria in a world so closely connected
with very action having cascading global
effects? How does responsible investment
happen in
an environment of continuously accelerating
change and complexity which is constantly
being disturbed by new disruptive technologies?
Are the lessons learned over generations
of wealth management important in this chaos
of exploding wealth? If so, how can they
be exemplified and taught? What happens if
these lessons are lost?
|
|
Escape
to a Higher Order
A World On the Move |
It
is June 2016.
You
are a research team made up of Private Wealth Council
members who have been asked to look at recent trends
of great concern to the Board and make recommendations
to the membership. |
| Despite
a small tactical nuclear exchange in the three
day xxx-xxx conflict; despite the forced
relocation of 76 million people due to rising
waters caused
by Global Warming; despite the capital requirements
necessary to convert the global infrastructure
and energy
system to ecologically sustainable technologies
and that this process is just 22% completed;
despite the “Cultural Wars” which
flared a half decade ago; despite the altered
gulf stream which has changed Europe's weather
patterns for decades to come; despite the near
panic of food shortages caused by global weather
pattern changes and the over fishing of the world’s
oceans; despite the unavoidable loss in animal
and plant bio diversity we have sustained and will
continue to sustain; despite several new pandemics
that threatened several major population centers
around the globe; Despite huge demographic dislocations
driven by aging populations, bulging youth populations,
war refugees from the “democratic rebellions”
that swept the remaining dictatorships from
power; despite globalization, wave after
wave of disruptive technologies many of which
let
to
accidents that
killed thousands; despite, in total, more change
in half a generation than the globe has ever
experienced in a century, a new economy/ecology/technology
is emerging in consort with new governance methods
and life-style patterns. The vast resources of
the human race are turning from war preparation
to creation. Machines are becoming intelligent
and taking over more and more of the world’s
production and management of transactions. Advancements
in human augmentation show signs of eliminating
most diseases, selectively modifying human mental
and physical capabilities and extending life
almost indefinitely. |
| New
breakthroughs in aerospace technologies are paving
the way for the private development of space.
Nanotechnology is starting to revolutionize materials
engineering, manufacturing and the health sciences.
Nano-weapons have made warfare nearly obsolete
and are jointly developed and guarded by a consortium
of nations that emerged after the “Gray Goo”
scare of 2012. |
| All
the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, are
still playing out. However, Human creativity
and organizational ability has been turned to
solving
the many problems
of the planet at a scale that makes the Manhattan
project, the Cold War, the Moon Program, all
combined together, pale by comparison. The planet
is mobilized
and people are having a great deal of fun making
Earth a habitat shared by all. There are still
many challenges ahead; yet these are embraced
as creative opportunities as business once embraced
complex challenges. Indeed, these challenges
are seen as everyone’s business. There remain
questions and new challenges. |
| These
questions concern many of the Private Wealth
Council Members. What is wealth and wealth management
in the decades ahead? How do you distinguish
between financial capital and human capital? |
The
Council wants to know:
Is
this as good” as it looks? How can
it go wrong? What happens
if it does? What are the implications to
what makes us human? What will motivate the
human race in the future? What will it be
like to live in a world of smart
machines?
Will
they have rights? What will “money” be within
a decade of 2016? How will property be defined?
What rules will govern its exchange?
|
|
Comments
on the organization of the
Scenario Exercises |
| The
use of Scenarios and Simulations in learning, design and planning
processes is an effective technique which is critical to approaching a condition as a whole system. In the case of the 2005 Bad Radgaz exercise, Al Gore presented his Global Warming Slide Show, then the 9 Divers of Change with a brief explanation of each. Then after a short break, the RDS was reset and everyone was “put into” the exercise with Fritz Kaiser reading his 2020 address announcing his retirement. For further commentary on scenarios and simulations and my response to some specific feedback I received on these four scenarios go to part two of this paper. |
|
|
|
| GoTo
Matt Taylor Papers Index |
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| GoTo
Organizational Transformation |
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Matt
Taylor
Liechtenstein
June 20, 2005
|
SolutionBox
voice of this document:
VISION • STRATEGY • EVALUATE
|
posted:
June 20, 2005
revised:
September 1, 2007
• 20050620.651999.mt • 200506.211232.mt
•
• 20050622.566510.mt •
20070901.510091.mt •
(note:
this document is about 70% finished)
Copyright© Matt
Taylor 2005, 2007
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