Weak Signal Research
 
Quo Vatus - Matt Taylor 1987
 
Systematic Future Mapping
part 2 of 2
return to part one
 
A close companion and consequence of WSR is what we call Future Views which is the systematic attempt to map a positive view of the future. This, I believe, is a necessary ingredient of a successful society. Today, we have few images of ourselves and our future which can be called positive. At best, we seem to be trying to hold on to the things we have while clinging to a narrative of a past that was never totally realized and in many respects seems to be retreating. The ambition to keep the quest and continue building the dream seems also to have faded.
click on FutureViews logo to go to BLOG
 

Signal # 5
1952

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal SPIN - The End of the “free” Press
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 6
1914

 
Context The Nation State was the vehicle for achieving many of the rights and freedoms that millions enjoy today. The United States from its founding into the first third of the 20th Century is a case in point. It may be becoming the greatest threat to these very same freedoms. This does not necessarily have to come about by intent. It may come about buy the simple fact that the architecture of the Nation State cannot deal with the complexity of modern life. The fall of the nation State may not be that bad. However, this fall with nothing viable to replace it may be one of the greatest calamities in human history.
Source  
Signal Event The Failure of the Nation State
Implications  
Patterns  
Links transfer of american spying to mercenary companies
 

Signal # 7
year 1888

 
Context Beyond the the present “oil wars” the single greatest cause of resource conflict between nations and within nations in the near term is most likely to be water. There are many alternatives to energy and how we use it. There are fewer alternatives to water, it transportation, use and the subsequent impact of its use and all life.
Source Event  
Signal The Politics of Water
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 8
year

 
Context  
Source  
Signal Event Intelligent machines
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 9
year

 
Context  
Source  
Signal Event Suspended animation
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 10
Month day, year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Cloning
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 11
1980

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Private Exploration of Space
Implications  
Patterns  
Links http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/28/branson-unveils-virgin-ga_n_115394.html
 

Signal # 12
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Military Exploitation of Space
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 13
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Intellegent Life in the Universe
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 14
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Political Economic Control of the Internet
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 15
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Sustainable Energy
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 16
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Decline of Education
Implications  
Patterns Credentialing versus educating.
Links  
 

Signal # 17
year

 
Context Every year new evidence pushes back the trade of world trade [see: #20]. It is a good conjecture, now, that humans have been trading globally, on and off, for thousands of years. So, what is different about “Globalization?” Scale, scope, control and impact.
Source Event  
Signal Globalization and Mass Consumerism
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 18
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Transparent or Surveillance Society
Implications  
Patterns  
Links http://www.noplacetohide.net/chapter.html
 

Signal # 19
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal The Failure of Enlightenment Principles
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 20
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal A Comprehensive Human History
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 21
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal The singularity
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 22
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal Rights of All Life Forms
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 23
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal The Corruption of Free Enterprise
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 

Signal # 24
year

 
Context  
Source Event  
Signal The Roman Circus and Drug Culture
Implications  
Patterns  
Links  
 
 
 
These are not THE Weak Signals - they are examples of many which I have been tracking for a generation. I invite you to track those which are relevant to you and the organizations of which you are a part. The majority of these signals are not obscure on the surface - they are “known” as a subject yet ignored. their implications hide in plain site. A signal may be “weak” because it is not seen or because it is ignored; or, if seen and not ignored, because we do not believe know how to deal with it. A strong signal is often made “weak” because to lies so far outside of our social paradigm that is is too risky to discuss it. Many times, signals are repressed by major organizations which have the power to do so.
 
Effective Weak Signal Research is essential to the success of civilization, political/economic regions, organizations, communities, families and individuals. The critical issue is this: Weak Signals, by definition, tend to become a complex tangled web of circumstances. They take time to sort out, make sense of and develop appropriate anticipatory-design responses to.
 
Weak signal research must be performed and connected to policy and action on all of these levels of recursion of the human enterprise. To fail to do so is to fly into the future blind.
inset jet planes model
inset worst case best case model
 
 
General Links of Interest
go to part one

Matt Taylor
Palo Alto
March 16, 2002

 

 

SolutionBox voice of this document:
INSIGHT • STRATEGY • CONSTRUCTION DOCUMENT

 

 

posted March 16, 2002

revised July 27, 2008
• 20020316.631428.mt
20040703.123409.mt •
• 20080725.912200.mt • 20080727234198.mt •

(note: this document is about 15% finished)

Copyright© Matt Taylor 1987, 2002, 2004

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