Quo
Vatus - Matt Taylor 1987 |
Systematic
Future Mapping |
part 2 of 2
return to part one |
| A close companion and consequence of WSR is what we call Future Views which is the systematic attempt to map a positive view of the future. This, I believe, is a necessary ingredient of a successful society. Today, we have few images of ourselves and our future which can be called positive. At best, we seem to be trying to hold on to the things we have while clinging to a narrative of a past that was never totally realized and in many respects seems to be retreating. The ambition to keep the quest and continue building the dream seems also to have faded. |
click on FutureViews logo to go to BLOG |
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| Signal |
SPIN -
The End of the “free” Press |
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| Context |
The Nation State was the vehicle for achieving many of the rights and freedoms that millions enjoy today. The United States from its founding into the first third of the 20th Century is a case in point. It may be becoming the greatest threat to these very same freedoms. This does not necessarily have to come about by intent. It may come about buy the simple fact that the architecture of the Nation State cannot deal with the complexity of modern life. The fall of the nation State may not be that bad. However, this fall with nothing viable to replace it may be one of the greatest calamities in human history. |
| Signal
Event |
The
Failure of the Nation State |
|
| Context |
Beyond the the present “oil wars” the single greatest cause of resource conflict between nations and within nations in the near term is most likely to be water. There are many alternatives to energy and how we use it. There are fewer alternatives to water, it transportation, use and the subsequent impact of its use and all life. |
| Signal |
The
Politics of Water |
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| Signal
Event |
Intelligent
machines |
|
| Signal
Event |
Suspended
animation |
|
Signal
# 10
Month day, year
|
| Signal |
Private
Exploration of Space |
|
| Signal |
Military Exploitation of Space |
|
| Signal |
Intellegent Life in the Universe |
|
| Signal |
Political Economic Control of the Internet |
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| Signal |
Sustainable Energy |
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| Signal |
Decline of Education |
| Patterns |
Credentialing versus educating. |
|
| Context |
Every year new evidence pushes back the trade of world trade [see: #20]. It is a good conjecture, now, that humans have been trading globally, on and off, for thousands of years. So, what is different about “Globalization?” Scale, scope, control and impact. |
| Signal |
Globalization and Mass Consumerism |
|
| Signal |
Transparent or Surveillance Society |
|
| Signal |
The Failure of Enlightenment Principles |
|
| Signal |
A Comprehensive Human History |
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| Signal |
Rights of All Life Forms |
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| Signal |
The Corruption of Free Enterprise |
|
| Signal |
The Roman Circus and Drug Culture |
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| These are not THE Weak Signals - they are examples of many which I have been tracking for a generation. I invite you to track those which are relevant to you and the organizations of which you are a part. The majority of these signals are not obscure on the surface - they are “known” as a subject yet ignored. their implications hide in plain site. A signal may be “weak” because it is not seen or because it is ignored; or, if seen and not ignored, because we do not believe know how to deal with it. A strong signal is often made “weak” because to lies so far outside of our social paradigm that is is too risky to discuss it. Many times, signals are repressed by major organizations which have the power to do so. |
Effective Weak Signal Research is essential to the
success of civilization, political/economic regions, organizations, communities, families and individuals. The critical issue is this: Weak Signals, by definition, tend to become a complex tangled web of circumstances. They take time to sort out, make sense of and develop appropriate anticipatory-design responses to. |
| Weak signal research
must be performed and connected to policy and action
on all of these levels of recursion of the human enterprise. To fail to
do so is to fly into the future blind. |
inset worst case best case model |
|
General Links of Interest |
Matt
Taylor
Palo Alto
March 16, 2002
SolutionBox
voice of this document:
INSIGHT • STRATEGY • CONSTRUCTION DOCUMENT
|
posted March
16, 2002
revised
July 27, 2008
• 20020316.631428.mt • 20040703.123409.mt
•
• 20080725.912200.mt • 20080727234198.mt •
(note:
this document is about 15% finished)
Copyright© Matt
Taylor 1987, 2002, 2004
IP
Statement and Policy
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