Four Scenarios
 
graphic by Irina Serikoff
© 2005
@ Bad Radgaz 2005
part one of two
 
 
During June 22 and 23, 2005 in Bad Ragaz, Switzerland, the iNet/Private Wealth Council met for their Annual Meeting. MG Taylor and TomorrowMakers prepared a Workshop for Private Wealth Council members to explore, develop and build an action agenda on sustainable Responsible Wealth Ownership.
 
The Workshop started with a Scenario of the future. This Scenario was based on MG Taylor Weak Signal Research and on a presentation given by Al Gore, to the entire iNet community, prior to the Workshop in which he outlined 9 drivers that will singularly and in combination effect the future.
 
The material below is composed of my preliminary Scenario, and participant instructions along with links to supporting articles. This is followed with comments on how to design and conduct a scenario exercise in circumstances such as this Annual meeting and Workshop. Some photos of the event are appended.
 
 
gore_drivers
 
Al Gore’s Drivers:
 
Prepared by Al Gore
 

1. Global Environmental Crises

2. Global Energy Transition

3. Population/Demographics

4. Pandemics

5. Scientific and technological Hyper-Revolution

6. Communication Hyper-Revolution

7. Globalization

8. War

9. Short Term Thinking and Lack of Vision

 

“Drivers” are, in the MG Taylor Method, conditions. In this case, Al Gore has outlined an architecture of interacting conditions which feed on and reinforce one another - they constitute a run-away positive feedback loop. Because of their scale and ubiquity, they represent a large portion of both possible good, and given our present behavior as a society [link; a future by default not design] probably bad future consequences capable of altering the fundamental basis of human life on Planet earth.

To successfully engage conditions of this kind requires a systematic method which ranges from thought to action over a long period of time. Conditions cannot be solved. Only problems can be solved and problems are created - not given. Defining the problem is the first step of the creative process. Defining the right problem is an art. The kind of problems that have to artistically created to successfully address the issues which are presented here we call Worth Problems [link: worthy problems method and matt taylor’s worthy problems list].

2020_address
 
An Address to the 15th Bad Ragaz
Responsible Wealth Forum 2020
 
“Ladies and Gentleman, I am Fritz Kaiser and I am privileged to address this forum as chairman now for the last time. I helped establish The Responsible Wealth Forum some years back and it is with great pleasure that I pass both the chairmanship and my board responsibilities on to a new generation of able leaders many of whom were in school when we convened for the first time. We have met the goals we set for ourselves 15 years ago. The Responsible Wealth concept is now a powerful global force for good. Pioneered by private wealth investors it is becoming the gold standard of all investment, globally. Our annual CITIZEN INVESTOR award is now followed with the same attention as once were the Academy Awards in Hollywood. Our Responsible Investment Criteria is becoming the standard by which the majority of investment strategies are judged. The number of visits to our on-site Investment Evaluator and Responsibility Scorecard now exceeds 5 million a day. World Watch recently said that the Responsible wealth movement is now the number one force for economic and ecological good in the world today. As you all know, this was not always the case and none of these achievements came easy
 
“When we started the Responsible Wealth Forum many were sceptical. ‘What, another meeting to go to where there is much talk and no action?’ some said. We ourselves did not know what the concept of RESPONSIBILTY meant in terms of managing wealth, over many generations, in a rapidly changing world. We had to learn what this means. We did this by employing action research. This method evolved out of our 2005 meeting and has since become the core of our Forum’s process.
 
“We started this work to answer a few fundamental and critical questions all related to the understanding of what is RESPONSIBILITY in terms of our behavior, our investments, what we advocate and what positions of influence we take in the world. What is wealth? How is it made sustainable? How can social and ecological good be, not only supported by investment policy but, actively promoted by how we invest and live our lives?” How can our families, and the communities in which we live and work, be healthy and archive multigenerational stability? What is the measure of social equity and how do our actions effect it? How do the consequences of technologies and social success effect animals, plant life and Planet Earth as a living system? We have struggled with and debated these questions over the years and evolved a set of answers that satisfy on individual and social, on local and global scales. We have created a set of principles, guidelines and standards that our members have been able to apply to their family investments and business with great success. These have also guided our work as a Forum and, as I mentioned, are now an influence in the broader arena of policy making, business and investment. We have reason to celebrate and feel satisfaction but not, I think, to rest on our laurels yet.
 
“I wish to reflect back on the world as is was at mid point of the first decade of this century. It was a time of many unknowns, great opportunities and grave dangers. It still is such a world, of course. However, we have, achieved, through our efforts together, a competence in our understanding of this world we live in and how we help shape it by our actions. And, while we can never predict or control this world, we have made real progress in the art of responsible investment.”
 
I do not have to remind you of how turbulent a decade and a half this has been. We have faced challenges and opportunities that only a few decades ago would have been considered science fiction. Global Warming is real today and no longer a matter of debate but an issue to be dealt with on a daily basis. Options in longevity, human and animal augmentation are breaking daily and upsetting, not only the relationship between humans and nature, but the fabric of traditional cultures. Ubiquitous computing and software advances, combined with manufacturing cost breakthroughs, have made the global distribution of knowledge a reality. Human Capital is now the most sought “resource.” This is a new and exciting level playing field but one with a whole new set of rules. And these are are just a few examples. You all know the details of the story because you have lived it. It is exciting. It is dangerous. It is full of opportunity - new kinds of opportunities.
 
I want to thank today, in particular, four Private wealth Council member research teams that took on the task of helping us work through moments of complexity and confusion. Their recommendations have been extraordinarily useful for all of us as we have struggled with the complexities of the global transformation we are in the midst of. We will be highlighting their work later in the day.
 
In closing, I want to share with you an invitation. In celebration of my upcoming 25th wedding anniversary, and soon my 65th birthday, we are booking seats on Atlantic Space Shuttles in order to see our planet from orbit. This seems a fitting way to see what we have been part of accomplishing and a special way of looking ahead to the next 50 years. Many believe that it was the NASA shots of Planet Earth, taken in the early days of the space race, that catalyzed the environmental movement. That was nearly 60 years ago. Now, ecology and economics are not seen as separate disciplines but as one integrated subject. This is a good thing. Please join us in our celebration.
 

After their introduction to the Workshop, this meta-scenario was read by Matt and Gail to the participants to set the context for the Scenario exercise. It was posted in each Breakout area along with each team’s specific Scenario (see below).

Knowledge objects were posted on the WorkWalls as well as in break out areas. Those is the public areas supported the exercise in general and all variations of the Scenario. Those posted in the breakout areas more directly related to individual Team Scenario challenges. Tables with redundant supporting materials were provideda and participants encouraged to take these materials to their rooms after the day’s work.

Al Gore’s Drivers, download full outline pdf [link: al gore divers outline], were prominently posted in the public and breakout areas.

The Scenario exercise instructions were posted on HyperTiles, progressively, as the “a,” “b,” “c,” and “d” questions and reporting instructions. This way the Teams had to work, incrementally, knot knowing what they would be asked to do next. This keeps both ambiguity and cognitive dissonance - and, thus, alertness - on the rise and promotes spontaneity - and, thus, creativity.

 
A Funny Thing Happened
on the Way to Utopia
 

It is 2010.

You are a research team made up of Private Wealth Council members who have been asked to look at recent trends of great concern to the Board and make recommendations to the membership.

 
The recent clashes between the US and China over oil has been eclipsed only by the recent “Summer of Flame” as it is now called. With the disruption of the ice caps, Europe is now faced with devastating winters with temperatures not seen since the mini ice age over 150 years ago. Many of the world’s “bread baskets” are becoming increasing arid. Competition between nations over water is beginning to rival that of oil and other critical resources. The recent introduction of robotic combat machines, by the US Army, added fuel to the already hot Saudi Intervention controversy when a programming glitch and inadequate command control resulted in the total destruction of a non-combatant village. Recent scandals and the ongoing failure to approve the Constitution has put the entire future of the EU in doubt. It was Africa who mediated the China-Us dispute and, despite continuing domestic problems, has increasingly stepped up to a world leadership role. The recent cloning of a human child has sparked global controversy with many nations banning all related research while others aggressively pursue it and human and animal augmentation methods creating “innovation havens” much like the tax havens of prior decades. This has sparked threats of trade embargos as well as a flight of “cultural creatives” from the more socially conservative countries. The deffinition of a “have” and “have not” nation is radically shifting.
 
All the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, seem to be playing out in a worst case way. Of recent, there have been more disturbing signs. It does not appear that investment is either effective nor responsible. Many Council members are concerned if preservation of capital is even possible, let alone wealth building with any kind of responsibility or sustainability. We hear greater concern being expressed for the coming generation and the state of our planet.
 

The Council wants to know:

What happened? How did it all go so bad so quickly? What “weak signals” were missed? Is this just the rocky part of the road before the future turns into a smooth super highway or are these signs of serious troubles that may overwhelm Humankind? What are the roles of private wealth in these circumstances? How can family wealth be preserved and balanced with social responsibility? Is the nature of investment changing? What is the nature of investment in a knowledge-based global economy in which the critical resource is human capital? What determines investment criteria in a world so closely connected that very action has cascading global effects? How does responsible investment happen in an environment, of continuously accelerating change and complexity, which is constantly being disturbed by new disruptive technologies?

 

“a” handout:

Read your Scenario. Accept it basic premises. From the vantage point of the role you have been given, explore the following questions.

How did these circumstances come about?

Flesh out the Scenario; what other events had to have happened for this world to emerge?

What are the implications of this kind of world?

You have x minutes. Use the white boards to get your ideas up so that everyone on your team can see them and add their thoughts.

“b” handout:

Prepare your recommendations to the Private Wealth Council Members.

You have x minutes.

“c” handout:

Stepping out of your Scenario role and retuning to present time, what are the lessons you learned by this exercise?

What are the implications of this exercise to the role of private wealth in the world?

What criteria for sustainable, responsible wealth investment is required in a world such as the one you explored?

You have x minutes.

“d” handout:

Prepare a 12 minute report of your work. Outline the essence of your Scenario. List the recommendations you made within your scenario role. Report the Implications to private wealth and the investment criteria you arrived at as the result of your Scenario exercise.

Outline, on the magnetic tiles provided, your findings and be prepared, by 00:00 pm to brief the whole group.

 
Muddling Through
Neither Good Nor bad with Life on the Brink
 

It is June 2012.

You are a research team made up of Private Wealth Council members who have been asked to look at recent trends of great concern to the Board and make recommendations to the membership.

 
After a reaction in 2006, to fundamentalism, in all its forms, which promoted a brief period of peace and increased dialog, the “Cultural Wars” are back with a vengeance. The world seems to be once again dividing into “Two Cultures” but not this time between North and South, East and West, or “Haves” and Have nots.” This is a bitter dispute based on religious and traditional social values and an increasingly secular, high tech, wealthy, globally oriented society. There are many who argue that these are not, intrinsically, opposing world views but these voices of moderation are, once again, being downed out by an increasing militant and vocal minority. The change in administration in the 08 US election and the radical shift in Iran’s leadership toward a moderate government has fueled this new and increasingly bitter debate. It is also fostering some unusual allies as once enemies are discovering common ground. Concerns that both Russia and Iraq may be tipping back toward their totalitarian past has raised the specter of a new “cold war.” Yet it is a very different world from before. Europe is absorbed with incorporating its new EU members and sorting out an acceptable constitution. The US is recovering from recent adventures in nation building. India and China’s economies are surging and they now are facing all the complexities of economic success and global responsibilities. Korea and Japan are seeking to rebuild their now “old” economics and face the issues of an aging population. All economies are being impacted by the costs of retooling required to ward off Global Warming and other human cause ecological messes. So far, we have avoided all the predicted disasters yet nothing seems to be moving toward a sustainable future. There is a growing concern and morass in the world and markets are sluggish. The recent disappointment over an highly promoted AIDS cure and actually caused a new and more resistant strain has reinforced the notion that humankind is in over its head. It also has raise cries of “technological imperialism” amid concerns that this is God’s way of punishing human arrogance.
 
All the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, seem to be playing out in a crazy combination of both best and worst case. Of recent, there have been more disturbing signs. It does not appear that investment is either effective nor responsible. Many Council members are concerned if preservation of capital is even possible, let alone wealth building with any kind of responsibility or sustainability. We hear greater concern being expressed for the coming generation and the state of our planet. It is noted that highly protected elite enclaves are on the rise all over the globe.
 

The Council wants to know:

What is happening? Are we gaining or losing ground? What “weak signals” are we missing? Are these just global growth pains before the future turns bright or are these signs of serious troubles that may overwhelm Humankind? What is the role of private wealth in these circumstances? How can family wealth be preserved and balanced with social responsibility? Is the nature of investment changing? What is the nature of investment in a knowledge-based global economy in which the critical resource is human capital in one part of the population while another members seem determined to go back to simpler times? This divide in not one region of the world against another but exists within every region of the world - what are the implications of this? What determines investment criteria in a world so closely connected that very action has cascading global effects? How does responsible investment happen in an environment, of continuously accelerating change and complexity, which is constantly being disturbed by new disruptive technologies which a large portion of the population violently disputes?

 
 
Missed Opportunities
The World Passed Us By
 

It is 2014.

You are a research team made up of Private Wealth Council members who have been asked to look at recent trends of great concern to the Board and make recommendations to the membership.

 

Generally, things have been going very well in the world. Terrorism is on the decline and true democracy on the rise. This is surprise to many given the decade before and a recent flare up of the “Cultural Wars”. Global ecological issues are still of concern but the World’s leadership from government, NGOs and industry rallied, worked together and pushed through the reforms necessary to getting the economy/energy/ecology equation in balance. This turned out to be a great deal easier than expected as there were many alternatives solutions waiting in the wings when the world was shocked into action by the “Great Collapse” of China’s food production capability. It was the DARPA/IBM/China Technology, ALRS consortium (Automated Logistical Robot System) that solved the resulting food crises. ALRS, for the first time, truly took the waste out of global food production and distribution and matched it with demand and transportation capacity. Today ALRS, the World bank and a global credit system based on FEP analysis (Future Earnings Potential) is well on the way to eradicating world hunger and doing so without all the baggage traditionally associated with “aid.” It will still be many decades before periodic droughts, sudden massive floods and and equally sudden and unexpected animal eradications, including domestic animals, are in decline but it is generally felt that we are at last headed in this right direction.

 
The global economy has exploded. The expected resource conflicts between the previously dominate West and the re surging East never developed since the brief US-China face down over oil some years back. New breakthroughs in sustainable energy technologies and materials engineering have turned the competition from one of control of traditional resources to one of developing and retaining inventive brain power - this is now called the design economy. Who has the best universities, research labs, creative work environments, interesting and open cultures, now determines where creative people migrate. While positive in the large view, this has proven massively disruptive to many economies. It is like the world turned upside down and inside out in half a decade.
 
All the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, seem to be playing out in the best case way that is conceivable. There are, however, disturbing signs. It does not appear that investment is effective in the long term sense - nor responsible. Many Council members fell like they are being passed by and are concerned if preservation of capital is even possible, let alone wealth building with any kind of responsibility or sustainability. They do not feel like they are participating in the economy, “in the game,” as they once were. We hear greater concern for the coming generation and the state of our planet. Is it becoming a human artifact? What does it mean to be human in a world of physical and mental augmentation, genetic engineering, extensive longevity and increasingly smart machines that seem to be running ever larger portions of the infrastructure? Are we in a manic phase that will lead to a boatload of unintended consequences? Will the majority of humans become obsolete? Will the elite become disconnected from reality?
 
These questions concern many of the Private Wealth Council Members. Traditional means of creating and preserving wealth are being increasingly made into commodities. The economy is moving ever faster. Boom and bust cycles like the .com era are no longer notable. They tend to be local and “dance around the globe” landing unexpectedly and then disappearing overnight. The old, large dinosaur-like corporations are giving away to ad-hoc global networks of investors, managers, technologists, designers, distributors and buyers who seem to invent whole markets over night - and then reform to do it again. Many private wealth families are finding it difficult to stay up with the complexity of this new world. There are concerns about family values and if the next generation will be able to - or want to - carry on with the family enterprise. The World, while ever more intriguing and dynamic, seems to be on a fast track to an unknown collision with an unknown future.
 

The Council wants to know:

What happened? How did everything change so quickly? What “weak signals” were missed? Is this just a phase on the road to the future, does a new “stability” result, or are we heading for a set of troubles that may overwhelm Humankind? What is the unique role of private wealth in these circumstances? How can family wealth be preserved and balanced with social responsibility? Is the nature of investment changing? What is the nature of investment in a knowledge-based global economy in which the critical resource is human capital? What determines investment criteria in a world so closely connected with very action having cascading global effects? How does responsible investment happen in an environment of continuously accelerating change and complexity which is constantly being disturbed by new disruptive technologies? Are the lessons learned over generations of wealth management important in this chaos of exploding wealth? If so, how can they be exemplified and taught? What happens if these lessons are lost?

 
 
Escape to a Higher Order
A World On the Move
 

It is June 2016.

You are a research team made up of Private Wealth Council members who have been asked to look at recent trends of great concern to the Board and make recommendations to the membership.
 
Despite a small tactical nuclear exchange in the three day xxx-xxx conflict; despite the forced relocation of 76 million people due to rising waters caused by Global Warming; despite the capital requirements necessary to convert the global infrastructure and energy system to ecologically sustainable technologies and that this process is just 22% completed; despite the “Cultural Wars” which flared a half decade ago; despite the altered gulf stream which has changed Europe's weather patterns for decades to come; despite the near panic of food shortages caused by global weather pattern changes and the over fishing of the world’s oceans; despite the unavoidable loss in animal and plant bio diversity we have sustained and will continue to sustain; despite several new pandemics that threatened several major population centers around the globe; Despite huge demographic dislocations driven by aging populations, bulging youth populations, war refugees from the “democratic rebellions” that swept the remaining dictatorships from power; despite globalization, wave after wave of disruptive technologies many of which let to accidents that killed thousands; despite, in total, more change in half a generation than the globe has ever experienced in a century, a new economy/ecology/technology is emerging in consort with new governance methods and life-style patterns. The vast resources of the human race are turning from war preparation to creation. Machines are becoming intelligent and taking over more and more of the world’s production and management of transactions. Advancements in human augmentation show signs of eliminating most diseases, selectively modifying human mental and physical capabilities and extending life almost indefinitely.
 
New breakthroughs in aerospace technologies are paving the way for the private development of space. Nanotechnology is starting to revolutionize materials engineering, manufacturing and the health sciences. Nano-weapons have made warfare nearly obsolete and are jointly developed and guarded by a consortium of nations that emerged after the “Gray Goo” scare of 2012.
 
All the Drivers that Al Gore presented in 2005, are still playing out. However, Human creativity and organizational ability has been turned to solving the many problems of the planet at a scale that makes the Manhattan project, the Cold War, the Moon Program, all combined together, pale by comparison. The planet is mobilized and people are having a great deal of fun making Earth a habitat shared by all. There are still many challenges ahead; yet these are embraced as creative opportunities as business once embraced complex challenges. Indeed, these challenges are seen as everyone’s business. There remain questions and new challenges.
 
These questions concern many of the Private Wealth Council Members. What is wealth and wealth management in the decades ahead? How do you distinguish between financial capital and human capital?
 

The Council wants to know:

Is this as good” as it looks? How can it go wrong? What happens if it does? What are the implications to what makes us human? What will motivate the human race in the future? What will it be like to live in a world of smart machines? Will they have rights? What will “money” be within a decade of 2016? How will property be defined? What rules will govern its exchange?

 
Comments on the organization of the
Scenario Exercises
 
The use of Scenarios and Simulations in learning, design and planning processes is an effective technique which is critical to approaching a condition as a whole system. In the case of the 2005 Bad Radgaz exercise, Al Gore presented his Global Warming Slide Show, then the 9 Divers of Change with a brief explanation of each. Then after a short break, the RDS was reset and everyone was “put into” the exercise with Fritz Kaiser reading his 2020 address announcing his retirement. For further commentary on scenarios and simulations and my response to some specific feedback I received on these four scenarios go to part two of this paper.
 
GoTo: part two of two
Return to INDEX
GoTo Matt Taylor Papers Index
GoTo Organizational Transformation
 
Matt Taylor
Liechtenstein
June 20, 2005
 

 

SolutionBox voice of this document:
VISION • STRATEGY • EVALUATE

 

 

posted: June 20, 2005

revised: September 1, 2007
• 20050620.651999.mt • 200506.211232.mt •
• 20050622.5
66510.mt 20070901.510091.mt •

(note: this document is about 70% finished)

Copyright© Matt Taylor 2005, 2007

 
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